euro outlook
Talk In The Street 6-8-10
Traders are talking about the harsh reality for the EUR at this point is that the
authorities there seem almost everywhere to believe that a materially weak EUR is something to be embrace rather than avoided, and that the weak EUR shall inure to their export benefit. In the long run that may in fact be correct, for if the EUR were to weaken dramatically enough exports will increase and imports will decrease, the balance of trade will swing materially
in Europe’s favor and perhaps the currency will eventually strength. But that is months, if not a year or two into the future, for the lag between a materially weakened currency and the “benefits” that that weakness is supposed to engender can but, and
almost always are, very long indeed.
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Talk In The Street 5.19.10
Talk In The Street 5.19.20
Well, I was slightly off with the bounce level but we did indeed get a nice short covering rally. FOREX will be more difficult now, meaning the moves up and down will not just drop or rally 300 pips. We are again going to have to work for the pips. Which is fine, just as long as we take what the market will give and watch our stops.
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Euro Sales Have Gone Parabolic 5.15.10
Euro is near its four year low amid doubts of its own survival!
There was a rumor circulating the commercial banks was that France had threatened to leave the Euro if Germany did not agree to the rescue package. It was denied, but like my old Treasurer Aldo would say “No smoke..No Fire, somewhere in the middle there is the truth.” It put doubts in the back of Traders minds about how committed the two largest architects and economies are to the Euro….
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Talk In The Street Euro Can And Will Fall Further; Can Invert
There is talk in the street Not to forget that many Central Banks (China, Japan, Australia, etc.) Have bought EUR dominated assets in order to “diversify” their holdings. They have be buying these assets for years and have accumulated tremendous amounts. They will need to liquidate these assets, and quickly.. The question is who will be the buyer of them?
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Euro Update
Euro jumped on news of Greece getting cheaply funded Euro Debt from the EMU. The Rally may be short lived Watch upper TRN at 1.3635 to hold… to read the remainder of this outlook, register for the members-only area
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